This seasonal forecast for the US is based on the signals nature has already presented to us and data available as well as past analog years.
With the still warmer than normal northeast Pacific, the development of a weak, possibly moderate El Nino into winter (central Pacific positioned), an easterly QBO and significant Siberian snow cover…
The Central and Eastern US looks poised for a second consecutive cold to very cold/snowy winter…
One of the key drivers responsible for the very cold winter of 2013-14 was the warm NE Pacific which forced stronger than normal heights over Alaska and northwest Canada.
While that’s a player again this year, the east and not west QBO along with greater than normal early season Siberian snow cover looks likely to support more North Atlantic/Greenland blocking this upcoming winter.
Extreme Cold This Winter? Pattern More Conducive Than Last Year!
East QBO’s and higher than normal snow cover over Siberia is linked to more of a -AO with the presence of BOTH Alaskan and Greenland highs. Something we didn’t get last winter. With both positives likely to be present together this year… look out! During east QBO’s and weak El Nino years like in 2000-01, 2002-04, 2003-04, 2009-10, you get the Alaska-Greenland ridge to squeeze a cross polar flow, injecting already bitter Canadian cold with even colder Siberian air, driving it into the Lower 48. With these two highs hooking up over top, the frigid air mass is trapped!
We could see a sustained 15-30 day stretch of intense cold.
500mb height anomaly when factoring in weak El Nino and east QBO.
Take dramatic increase in snowc0ver during October. This may make for more intense cold which could be driven into the US.
Via Anthony Sagliani
Credit: NOAA
I fear this winter could present several major cold outbreaks. The first is occurring as of this writing with low single digits found in the UP of Michigan this morning while nearly 2ft of snow falls in the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina. Even the central Carolinas got hit by a few slushy inches making it their earliest snow on record.
Credit: NWS Morristown
Here’s that recent strat warming which went off over Siberia and may be the cause of this outbreak. Possibly triggered by the unusually large snow pack?
Could this be a sign bigger things to come?
More warming is now showing.
Watch late November into early December. This the the type of situation which could see multiple SSW events with a major mid winter which plunges many parts of the hemisphere into the freezer. Some of the US’s greatest cold outbreaks start off the way this year is.
Here’s a look at the latest SST anomaly. Models are in good agreement about the central Pacific based El Nino which like the east QBO, supports cold for central and eastern US.
CFSv2 SST anomaly forecast
Jamstec
While the models agree on SST’s and modoki El Nino, they go their separate ways when it comes to land temperature.
CFSV2
Jamstec
Met Office (500mb height anomaly)
Credit: Met Office
Precipitation
CFSV2
Jamstec
I’m looking for wetter than normal in California, across the southern tier of the country and up the East Coast as far as New York.
WILL HAVE A VIDEO TOMORROW DISCUSSING THE WINTER FORECAST!
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