Here’s a different take on the upcoming European winter compared to AccuWeather and myself. Always good to show other ideas.

From WSI Europe

Another “4-W Winter” Appears More Likely Than Not

Andover, MA

This winter (November – January period), WSI (Weather Services International) expects another “4-W Winter” with lack of North Atlantic blocking. The seasonal forecast indicates slightly below-normal temperatures for residents in the UK and western France region, and above-normal temperatures expected across southern mainland Europe. A wet and windy period is expected across Western Europe as well, with dry and calmer conditions setting up across southeastern Europe.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, “The last two winters have generally been ‘4-W winters’ (westerly/warm/wet/windy) across much of Europe, as strong low pressure across the North Atlantic has limited the amount of colder/drier air that can penetrate southward into the mainland. While El Nino conditions are much stronger this year than last, most of our best indicators are suggesting another winter characterized by strong westerlies across much of the continent.

Given the unusually strong high-latitude blocking observed during late summer and early autumn, it may be that the polar vortex is weak enough to enable more blocking this winter that would favor colder weather. However, at this time, we think this colder scenario is unlikely.”

For the upcoming winter season, WSI forecasts the following conditions:

• November
  • Nordic Region*: Warmer than normal west, colder east
  • UK*: Near normal
  • Northern Mainland*: Warmer than normal west, colder east
  • Southern Mainland*: Warmer than normal west, colder east
• December
  • Nordic Region : Warmer than normal
  • UK: Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland: Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland: Warmer than normal west, cooler far Southeast
• January
  • Nordic Region: Colder than normal
  • UK: Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland: Warmer than normal east
  • Southern Mainland: Warmer than normal east

WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next seasonal outlook, including a first look at summer, on 23 November.