This latest northward warm surge from Iberia through France into the southern UK comes and goes almost immediately. Triggered and brought to an abrupt end by an unusually deep approaching Atlantic low which arrives tonight.

Latest visible satellite imagery shows the low gathering and approaching Ireland while out ahead, cloudless skies and SSE winds push heat and humidity north up through France into the UK.

The 850mb temps for this afternoon show the low pulling Mediterranean air north.

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After highs push the 26-28C mark this afternoon over Southeast England and potentially up to 36C in Paris, a shield of heavy rain spreads across Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland this evening with thunderstorms firing along the leading edge as energy hits the warm, humid lower atmosphere. With a fairly tight wound low for the time of year, winds are likely to touch gale-force overnight along the coast and over high ground in northern and western areas. Gusts will widely top 20-30 mph inland but may reach 50-60 mph in exposed areas. It wouldn’t surprise me if exposed Cairngorm Summit receives gusts near hurricane-force (75 mph) during tomorrow.

Looking pretty nasty tomorrow morning for the Open Championship at St Andrews with a spell of persistent, wind driven rain pushing straight in off the North Sea.

With high lapse rates (difference in temperature within lowest 5,000ft), caused by cool air riding over warm, moist air, upward motion is likely to be enhanced and sufficient for the development of strong thunderstorm cells, particularly along the leading edge of the main front as it moves across  a relatively warm, humid UK this evening.

The instability even within the main rain shield may have embedded thunderstorms within over parts of NI and Scotland. These may enhance rainfall rates locally.

In terms of temperature, unfortunately for us up here in Scotland and back across Northern Ireland, it’s not a particularly warm day with highs this afternoon of only 14-17C compared to widespread 21-24C, locally 26-28C over England and Wales.

So, increasingly wet and windy tonight and through the overnight for majority of the UK and Ireland, breezy for SE England and remaining hot, humid down over France. The front pushes south, southeast over France and the Low Countries during tomorrow while it remains very windy throughout the Northern UK.

Up to 2 inches of rain expected over the West Highland upslopes while very little from the West Midlands down towards Devon and Cornwall through the next 72 hours.

Looks like a cool, breezy and showery weekend ahead as the low lifts up into the Norwegian Sea.

See this morning’s video for the latest discussion. More on next week’s weather tomorrow.

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