As we head towards the end of what has been a warmer and drier than normal month, as expected, we see some changes with heights lowering over the UK and Ireland.

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The next 7 days will see more northwest to south split with the warmest, driest conditions over England and Wales while energy riding a WNW upper flow will present spells of rain as well as cooler air to northern Ireland and Scotland.

Scotland temporarily dries and warms Monday but it’s looking like spells of rain with embedded showers become the main aspect through the upcoming work week. Looking good though for the first full week of the English school holidays.

Be sure to check out the video from this morning for a detailed discussion.

Here’s the upcoming 7 days according to the GFS.

As for the upcoming 16 days off the GFS ensemble. Looks like the trough settles in by week 2 just SW of Ireland which should present a somewhat cooler and more unsettled first week of August to a much broader part of the UK as well as the Western mainland.

Will be interesting to see the strength of the trough as models I think have been too aggressive with the lowering of heights this summer.

More tomorrow.

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