While the West bakes with record breaking heat once again, the next big trough is beginning to get carved out over the N Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest. As a result, with a lot of energy  diving south over top of the hot, humid air currently in place (that should be there at this time of year), the severe weather risk steeply increases from today through tonight across much of Ohio into the Mid-Atlantic.

Here’s the upper air pattern for 12z today! Check out the strong upper energy diving SE that will fuel thunderstorms firing along and ahead of the boundary. 100-105 degree air over the central and southern plains that tries to push north will add fuel to the fire.

18z Sun

00z Mon

Check out the 100+ kt jet blasting overtop of the storm area. That unusually strong jet will help pull the air upwards, adding enhanced energy.

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Here’s the moderate and slight risk area put out by the Storm Prediction Center for today extending into tonight. Live anywhere within that slight or particularly moderate risk area, pay close attention to your local station today!

High wind probability

Cities at risk

By tomorrow, the risk is lowered as all the energy largely leaves the coast out into the Atlantic. Next week, it’s all about the departing heat and humidity across the Southern Tier and the cool that comes down once again. The departures from normal will run 5-15, locally 20-25 below normal by mid to late next week over the very area that’s hottest at the moment (central and southern plains!)

Both Oklahoma City and Dallas should go from 100s yesterday and today to 70s late next week once again. The 3 straight days in the 70s last week in Dallas was the coldest July stretch since 1967!

Check out the highs from yesterday.

Next Thursday on the Southern Plains!

2-metre temps off ECMWF at 18z Thu

Here’s the 7-day mean departures from normal.

Here’s how far behind the Heartland is below normal for 90 degree days, impressive!

In tomorrow’s write-up I will share some fall ideas. Stay tuned and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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