For the best part of a week now, I’ve been monitoring an unseasonably deep trough in which the models have been hinting at which will dive into the Eastern half of the US early next week.

That trough which could deliver frost all the way to the Tennessee and Georgia mountains with all-time May record lows challenged throughout the spine of the Appalachians.

This would be no ordinary trough, just like most haven’t been for the past several weeks, containing unusually cold arctic air from an unusually cold source region (Canada). We’re now entering Mid-May and we’re STILL talking about cold. Amazing.

Following the natural warm-up you would expect by this point in the year, 1-2 nights with lows below 30 degrees will be a serious problem to fruit farmers, however, it’s the level of cold which is the major concern.

The Ohio Valley as well as down into the Interior East could see 3-5 hours of sub-freezing conditions and with crops now well out, this could kill a lot of production.

Check out the latest GFS numbers for both Monday and Tuesday morning’s.

Mon

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Tue

Notice the 25 degree line showing up and the 35 degree line getting close to the major cities. For DC-Balt, Philly, NYC to get into the upper 30s in Mid-May is quite impressive but LOW 20’s is seen over parts of Pennsylvania down into western Maryland, West Virginia and western Virginia with upper 20s all the way to the North Carolina mountains. This has the potential to be a major disaster for the multi-billion dollar fruit industry.

According to Joe Bastardi, the all-time record low for May at Elkins, WV is 19.9 degrees and the GFS has Elkins dropping to 20 degrees. Low 20s would most certainly challenge May benchmark’s for cold in many areas.

This comes after many towns and cities within the Plains shattered all-time record lows for April and May and now it’s the East’s turn.

Is the GFS too cold? Certainly the ECMWF isn’t as cold, however the GFS remains adamant with it’s numbers with a devastating freeze all the way into the NC mtns. Both Sun and Mon night has the potential.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]

Tags: Eastern US May Chill, Eastern US May cold spell, May freeze, record May cold