The heat is on from Monday through Wednesday next week as an upper level and surface ridge drives the Iberian heat pump all the way up into southern Norway, Sweden and Finland next week.Right now, the headache with next week’s forecast is the timing of an approaching cold front, however as it approaches from the west, rather than spoling the show, it should increase the SSW flow over much of Ireland, Northern Ireland and all of the UK Monday, producing 23, possibly 24C over parts of England, 22C for Wales and potentially the first 21C for Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland. It’s Tuesday that remains the big question mark over particularly Ireland and Scotland and right now, models show the front having pushed right across the UK late Yuesday into Wednesday according to both GFS and ECMWF. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tuesday is the warmest day for Ireland, NI and Scotland with highs reaching 25C in SE England, but Wednesday MAY still be a very warm, sunny and windy day in the Southeasst corner with a high approaching 27C. That is certainly pushing the boat out I know as there’s no model guidance to support the cold front still NE of London Wednesday afternoon but I believe it boils down the the strength of the ridge.

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Tuesday could go either way but there is the potential to see highs in NE Scotland reach 22-23C while eastern Ireland, Northern Ireland may see 21-22C.

As is often the case, the GFS is quicker in it’s eastward progression of the approaching cold front whereas the ECMWF tends to hold it back. However as you’ll see from the below charts which show you both examples, there is little difference in the timing of the front in this instance. A mere 12 hour difference in speed of the front can mean the difference between a warm, sunny afternoon across Ireland and western Scotland, even much of England or a day of wind and rain.

Here’s the latest GFS surface chart and precip.

Mon

Tue

Later Tue

Here’s the ECMWF.

Mon

Tue

Later Tue

Here’s the ECMWF upper level chart for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.

The fly in the ointment is the upper low over northern France early in the week. This may bring cooler and unsettled conditions from Paris up towards the Low Countries if it’s slow to dive southeast, however, if it gets out of the way quick enough, temperatures may soar from southern France all the way up through the Low Countries through Denmark and into Germany.

Southern Scandinavia looks to see the warmth from Tuesday onwards and I am anticipating mid week highs in both Oslo and Stockholm above 21C, perhaps even 22 or 23C by next Thursday.

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

As you can see, the upper trough clearly digs southeast over the UK Wed through Thursday with the heat hooking around the trough and up unto southern Scandinavia. This may support the warmest day of all Thursday.

As for Spain and Portugal. The ECMWF is hinting a strengthening heights and warming 850 temps which may support the first HOT spell for Iberia. How warm? Low 90s from Seville up through Madrid.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WR7tfqM63H4]

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