Thought I would take a closer look at the timing of the cold front on this Sunday morning with a look at the latest run of the GFS. What’s interesting to me is the fact that it would appear EASTERN Ireland and the Repubic as well as central and eastern Scotland should enjoy more warmth and sunshine even on Tuesday and not just Monday. The boundary does appear to hang back west enough to squeeze out one last warm and sunny day before the return of wind, rain and much cooler temperatures.

Here’s a look at the latest surface charts off the GFS for Monday and Tuesday.

Mon

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Tue

Although the dividing line on the surface charts are indicated where the red isobars meet blue but a better idea can be seen on the precipitation charts because the rain band in fact shows the front better.

Mon

Tue

Wed

Notice on Tuesday, when many thought the rain band would be through and it’s back to wind and much cooler temperatures, the GFS has boundary holding back and even off the coast of Ireland and Northern Ireland. That to me is the model feeling the strong heights over the UK. I may still be wrong on this and it may be quicker but this is what I’ve been trying to show you. The GFS is often too fast at bringing in the cold front and this could make all the difference to Tuesday. In western parts of Ireland and NI, it may be well cloudy, wet and windy but right now I am putting eastern parts in the sun, strong SW flow with surface temperatures in the low 20s.

The NE corner of Scotland, east of the Grampian Mountains is the prime region for downslope warming thanks to the SW direction of the wind. Don’t be surprised to see 23, perhaps 24C in Aboyne Tuesday afternoon.

As for eastern parts of England, your heading for 23 to 25C. Elsewhere, 20-23C.

Live in Denmark up into southern Scandinavia, it appears Tuesday will be warmest in Copenhagen across to Hamburg and Berlin. There is uncertainly for the North of France due to the upper low nearby. This may spark rain, cloud and cooler temperatures.

As for Oslo and Stockholm, it’s once the trough digs into the UK, do you really warm because the heat from Iberia, gets deflected AROUND the trough and up into your region. I believe 22-23C is possible in both Oslo and Stockholm by Thursday.

Check out the ECMWF upper chart for Thursday, you’ve got the warmest 850s by along over the Baltic Sea.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXSNEmAVIkU]

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]