Boy, what a storm this has been across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and now through Illinois, Indiana this evening with as much as 7 inches now down in Chicago. An impressive 9 inches of snow fell up in Minneapolis from this system and well over a foot came down up over North Dakota. This powerful winter storm is sliding into the Ohio Valley overnight tonight and should begin to bring worsening weather conditions to the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow morning.After dumping expected 4-9 inch amounts tonight through Indiana and parts of Ohio, concerns are rising for the Baltimore-Washington area. Nothing has changed in the last 24 hours with the uncertainties over this storm once we see the secondary low develop off the coast and moisture begins to pile into the region from the Atlantic.

It certainly would appear that enough cold air ‘should’ make it into the Baltimore-Washington Metro area for a ‘mostly snow’ event but rate at which the snow falls will be key as to accumulations.

I am very much convinced that once you head into the higher elevations of western Maryland, northwest Virginia and down and just inside the West Virginia border, those mountains, exposed to easterly upslope, may pick up 16-24″ with a potential ‘surprise’ 30 inch amount somewhere.

The jury is still out for the cities but even the coastal plain along the I-95 corridor, could well as 8-10 inches, locally 12 and that includes the metro areas. It sure is going to be one ugly morning if your even attempting to travel into work tomorrow. Don’t is my the likely advise of many!

Ok, finally, here is the ECMWF 1000_500mb thickness & surface pressure charts 24-36 hrs.

24 hrs

Note the low over the VA-NC coast with tremendous amounts of Atlantic moisture piling in on the north side of the circulation. The bullseye of greatest rates are right over the mountains of northwest VA, western MD and WV. With the cold pocket sitting overtop, narrow banding features are likely dropping 2-4 inch per hour snows with embedded thundersnow. This rate and wetness of the snow could bring down trees, powerlines etc within this region.

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30 hrs

Note the storm remains centred right along the VA-NC coast with the core of heaviest precip now backing slightly further south, perhaps nearer the Balt-DC area with a bullseye just to the west southwest of the metro areas.

By 36 hrs you can see further highly concentrated waves of moisture driving onshire and into the metro area and surrounding areas.

Here’s the latest GFS snow forecast!

Note it has at least 8-10 inches of snow down in the Baltimore-Washington corridor. Impressive…

Follow me on Twitter @MarkVogan for updates throughout tonight!

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Tags: baltimore-washington snow storm 2013, mid-atlantic march snowstorm, washington baltimore march snowstorm, washington snowstorm