>Thoughts and Ideas on the Long Range, not my forecast! That’s coming on October 31st!

After one of the coldest October outbreaks on record from the American West and the brutal chill and crippling snow for central and eastern Europe, a warm, zonal flow will flood much of the Northern Hemisphere at the same time Arctic cold retreats north to recharge after it’s early appearance.

The arrival of the remnants of Tyhoon Melor and the smash into the American West Coast by a cell of it’s energy, this is the building blocks to a new hemisphere-wide pattern that will control the next 6-8 weeks of weather across much of America and Europe through the rest of October and November with potential for record mildness!! 20s(C) in southern England, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and even mid-teens (C) across Scotland and southern Scandinavia?. This could be possible at the same time northern Canada and Alaska experiences record cold through November and early December before a big atmospheric flip commences in the mid-December to Chistmas period… I wouldn’t be surprised to see unusual warmth of 70s for Minneapolis, Chicago to New York in November with a strong west flow across the US.

Meanwhile, all the cold air is building and bottled over the North Pole where it will charge and ready itself for a brilliant display of severity in December in the populated industrialised areas of Europe and North America and likely will produce record cold to areas including western North America and portions of central Europe (Germany, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovenia). I expect a switch to a negative Arctic Oscillation by mid-December. So from now till then, we shall see a stunning Polar Vortex develop and will likely produce temps between -40 to -55F through November and early December in the coldest parts of the Arctic, even Fairbanks, Dawson, Yellowknife, Mayo and down to Churchill may experience intense cold that will make folks think their in for another severe winter, then a switch will begin as stronger pressures start to build up the West Coast of North America into Alaska and the Arctic (similar to January 2009 when a flip from -60 to 55 above created one of the greatest temperature changes on record for areas of central Alaska) and the stratosphere starts warming. The fierce cold air and a northerly jet stream will begin to transport this Arctic air south into Europe and North America. The cold that will center itself in two areas “central Europe” and central and western Canada and the USA will grow stronger and push westward over Europe into the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK and eastward across America..

In central Europe, Austria and Switzerland may see some of their coldest temperatures in many years as they remain buried under massive snow covers. The core of cold will swing out of Germany, Austria and Switzerland and a parcel of this air will move towards coastal Europe with the Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium and Great Britain in for a week to 10 day deep freeze, which may dwarf last winters coldest period!! Record cold for London and Glasgow?

As for North America and more detailed information which I shall provide for individual countries and a comparison to records and those temperatures that may be achieved this upcoming winter will be discussioned in my upcoming winter forecasts.

Stay tuned.

-Mark Vogan

For those who have questions about the upcoming winter for your country or area, please feel free to email me at [email protected]