Spring 2015
While it’s all about the warming in the eastern Pacific, it’s quite the opposite to our west over the North Atlantic. With a mean upper flow pattern blowing west-east off a colder-than-normal North Atlantic means unusually cool winds for mid May across Ireland, UK and into the western mainland of Europe. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The initial 5-day mean off […]
The 2015 El Nino is likely to become the biggest ‘global weather story’ in quite some time with major impacts heading for the United States drought area. This is likely to have US and global implication and could significantly dent the multi-year drought in California. Could it wipe it out through fall and winter? It would […]
This just shows you how poor the CFSv2 guidance can be. We half way through May and here’s the last 3 runs. May has went from dry in N UK/wet Iberia to the complete opposite and June has went from dry to wet. I takes to know your weather and climatic drivers. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] June’s flipped from wet […]
When looking at the 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies off the models, there is one aspect which really sticks out. The warm water of the eastern Pacific has differing influence on the atmosphere depending upon latitude. The El Nino and dramatic warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific is already significantly influencing the US atmospheric pattern but our old friend, the […]
While April was drier than expected, the May pattern appears to be behaving as forecast with a much cooler and more unsettled regime with the Atlantic being the primary driver. Unlike Feb-Mar-Apr where a blocking high was dominant, that stone is gone and the atmosphere is much more free flowing and bringing up the rain deficits […]
As Jen Carfagno of The Weather Channel correctly states, this is NOT your typical May surface chart! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] All within 12 hours… heavy, windblown snow from Denver to Cheyenne across to Rapid City, severe and tornadic thunderstorms for the Central and Southern Plains to a landfalling Tropical Storm Ana near Myrtle Beach, SC. The […]
Under clear skies, light wind and within a cool/ry air mass, temperatures have tumbled to pretty chilly levels by mid May standards in recent nights. But -5 or even -6 isn’t as unusual as you’d think. This morning… -4 Kinbrace / Friday morning… -5.3C at Braemar [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Sure, there’s been times of chill and frost this month but it’s nothing […]
Within 24 hours, the US landmass will have experienced major snowfall (Rockies/High Plains), severe weather including tornadoes and flash flooding on the Central/Southern Plains as well as a landfalling Tropical Cyclone (Ana) in the Carolinas. As AccuWeather’s Jesse Ferrell points out, this may be a first. Ana is now a fully tropical, 60 mph storm and […]
NHC has declared Tropical Storm Ana off the Carolina coast. This system is expected to drift towards the coast through the weekend with biggest impacts being coastal gales, flooding rainfall and beach erosion. As of the 5am advisory, Ana is a 1004mb, 45 mph subtropical storm. Ana is in no hurry, moving at only 1 […]
After a cold start to Friday with temps down to -4, possibly -5 in Highland Scotland, it’s another day of bright or sunny spells mixed with cloud. However, a band of rain will spread across Wales and the central swathe of England from off the Irish Sea today and this will shape the first half of the weekend. Dry to the north […]
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