Seasonal Forecasts
For the majority of the Lower 48, Halloween is mild to warm as well as quiet. I say the majority because not all will enjoy a Halloween which could be mistaken for late summer. A system crossing the Great Lakes/Lower Midwest will provide shower activity while the main focus of weather will be over California […]
Halloween in recent years have been anything but cold, in fact record warm and while there’s no records under threat this year, the mild theme continues thanks to high pressure with moist south/southwest winds which hold day and night temperatures above normal. This year is looking similar to last year with low pressure west and high pressure east which allowed winds […]
As we lean towards November, the US weather pattern remains very interesting. Following what’s likely to be a record warm October for much of the Lower 48 east of the Rockies, we have just witnessed an impressive late October snowstorm for the interior Northeast. Nothing unprecedented by any means but impressive given how warm it’s […]
Unless something dramatically changes, the first taste of winter should reach UK shores early next week and the trend is for colder as the week progresses. In recent posts/videos I’ve broken down the details on the evolution to this early start to winter with weak polar vortex and -AO laying the ground work early over Siberia. […]
Snow cover continues to expand across Eurasia ahead of schedule thanks to a weak polar vortex and persistent -AO induced northern blocking. Moscow and Kiev both woke to their first snowfall this morning with 20cm locally. Kiev, Ukraine last night. Moscow before daybreak this morning. This cold trend doesn’t appear to wane but intensify as we head for […]
We have bookend lows in extreme SW and NE of the continent while high pressure dominates in between. The jet is splitting west of Ireland with the greatest energy on the southern branch, hence why we have a major low bringing wet and stormy conditions to the Canaries, Northwest Africa extending into southern Iberia. Impressive shelf cloud rolling in […]
The post El Nino dominance of warmth holds strong through meteorological autumn’s second month. This was September… Despite a strong -AO, the warmth continues. October so far! That trend even continues into early November… Another warm month to come? I believe the first half of November will continue to see a warmer than normal pattern over […]
We continue our journey from summer into winter and it’s often a rollercoaster ride. This week shall be no exception. On the other side of the Atlantic, a storm system has swept away record 80-degree weather day after day over the Northeast US and replaced it with cold, windy and even snowy conditions. This dramatic contrast has accelerated the trans […]
In the wake of a record warm September, a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) with persistent blocking high pressure over Scandinavia which has made for a cold October. -AO forced by a nice tropospheric warming event. October temperature anomaly so far this October. It’s been a record warm October over the Eastern United States. Note below the […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Despite there being a strong -AO, it’s been a toasty October from the Plains to East Coast. Despite this nice tropospheric warming event which forced the tanking of the AO… This is the temperature anomaly across the US through the opening 18 days of Oct. There’s an abrupt shift now underway for the East […]
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