Seasonal Forecasts
As we enter the final 10 days of October I continue to gather the remaining evidence in order to put forward my 2016-17 winter forecast. The latest information regarding Arctic Sea Ice states that for the time of year, we have the lowest levels on record as you can see from the below chart. Look […]
NHC has decreased the development of Invest 99L from 80 to 50% given the sheared environment it’s in and disorganised appearance this morning. The good news is that even if this thing we’re to develop, it’s unlikely to significantly impact the US East Coast. However, it’s the very eastbound frontal system sliding through the Tennessee/Ohio Valley that will steer 99L away from […]
As your well aware, we’ve a very blocked up pattern with high pressure repositioning back into Scandinavia while Atlantic lows get diverted into Iberia and south-central Europe. However, the driving mechanism to our weather can be traced back to North America. In today’s written post I want to show you the GFS jet stream chart through the […]
By Linda Lam and Jon Erdman Published Oct 19 2016 04:54 PM EDT weather.com Story Highlights High temperatures in the 80s and even 90s are baking parts of the East and South. The heat has already set many record highs in the Plains, South and East. More record highs are expected Thursday before fall temperatures […]
At this time last year, the polar vortex was strong and continuing to strengthen, likely influenced by the heat discharge emitted by the oncoming Super El Nino with a firm low over high pressure hemispheric 500mb pattern. This laid to dominant zonal, oceanic influence on both North America, Europe and indeed Asia. This year it’s been weak and this along with a […]
It’s a storm with a split personality! Dodge City, KS hit 101F yesterday, their first ever 100 in October! Behind the front it was a chilly 11F at Marbleton, WY this morning. Bigtime flip in 500mb pattern and as a result a 20-40F temp drop. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
As forecast, the Scottish Highlands have received their first widespread covering above 3,000ft thanks to the passage of a cold front overnight which brought heavy and persistent rain for a time. Winds veered northwesterly and this drove in our first real push of ocean modified Greenland air. This morning is more like late October. This morning’s view from […]
One storm, multiple personalities. The same system which spawn two tornadoes in Oregon and 90+mph wind gusts in 4 states, forced temperatures to a record 102 degrees in Oklahoma and 101 degrees in Texas out ahead and on the backside? dumped 16-24″ of snow! Manzanita, OR picking up the pieces from a record EF2 tornado. High […]
Before we focus on the Western Europe short range I want to pan out and look at the bigger picture because it’s this that explains the finer details. Firstly, Nicole remains a hurricane and a hurricane that’s getting unusually far north. As you can see from the below NHC track forecast this system is expected […]
A 185-mph jet stream powered Pacific Northwest parade brought plenty damage this weekend. Midland, WA On the other side of the Rockies, it felt more like July! Here is the setup responsible for such extremes. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Yesterday saw 95 degrees in Amarillo, TX which breaks the record for latest such reading by over a week. Then it […]
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