We continue our journey from summer into winter and it’s often a rollercoaster ride. This week shall be no exception.

On the other side of the Atlantic, a storm system has swept away record 80-degree weather day after day over the Northeast US and replaced it with cold, windy and even snowy conditions. This dramatic contrast has accelerated the trans Atlantic jet and as a result is shifted the Scandinavia block. By midweek we shall be back under a firm maritime influence TEMPORARILY.

However, on the underside of the jet warmth is being lifted forcing pressure rise and sinking air out ahead. Through the second half of this workweek, following a spell of wet and windy conditions, primarily confined to Northern Ireland and Scotland, high pressure builds strongly from Azores to UK while a major cut off low pushes cool, wet and windy conditions east into Iberia and south over the typically still warm and sunny. Not so good for late season holiday makers.

Scenes like this in Gran Canaria back in September can be expected this week.

So, high pressure builds strongly over the UK late week and into the weekend with milder temperatures enhanced by a WSW flow.

17-18C is possible Wednesday with WSW picking up ahead of front and Friday as the high builds.

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Vortex split and early cold spell?

As Stuart Markham of chorley weather tweeted earlier, it’s unusual to see a polar vortex split this early.

The below EPS control and GFS ensemble show the warming trend brought by the strong high developing but there’s good model agreement that high pressure shall retrograde out into the Atlantic and Greenland as we close October and open November and this shall bring a fairly cold start to the new month.

Here’s the EPS control 850mb or 5,000ft temperature anomalies and note the cold to warm back to cold.

GFS ensemble 5-day means

See today’s video.

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