The post El Nino dominance of warmth holds strong through meteorological autumn’s second month.

This was September…

Despite a strong -AO, the warmth continues.

October so far!

That trend even continues into early November…

Another warm month to come?

I believe the first half of November will continue to see a warmer than normal pattern over the Midwest and East while the Pacific and West continues to see storm systems. However, as we progress through the month’s second half, the atmosphere continues to cool across the north with the growth of snow cover across Canada, the feedback to atmosphere changes and leans more and more towards a winter mode and so while I expect heights to remain positive over or near Hudson Bay, the western trough should begin sliding in underneath and so a cooler, more unsettled pattern should start to have influence from Nov 20th on.

Warmth and ridging should noticeably deflate through the second half of the month. I suspect more Pacific brand cold rather than arctic through the second half of the month so cold yes but nothing extreme.

The below CFSv2 weeklies show the ridge over trough pattern showing up after a warm, ‘ridgy’ first half to the month in the East.

No getting away from the fact the warmth dominates through November’s first half.

CFSv2 for November overall.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Travel Vermont ‏@VermontTourism

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