Seasonal Forecasts
By this weekend and beyond, the chill of late April will be forgotten, out of sight, out of mind! Here’s how April’s final week looked over Europe. We know the heat is building and heading our way. This trend usually sees the warmth over Iberia first. Sure enough it soared to 33.8C yesterday (likely Spain’s warmest day […]
Easterners will have to remain patient on the true arrival of summer. We still have snow on the charts and with a series of sharp May cold shots coming down, we could still see the white stuff as far south as the Smokies where a frost and freeze remains a threat. GFS has snow in […]
Now that we’re turning the upper air pattern on it’s head by reversing the high over low, we’re finally in a position to plug southern warmth as the supressed subtropical high will finally get to lift north. You may want to dust down those BBQ’s as Fri-Sun is likely to see the first low 20s for many. […]
It’s looked and felt more like winter of late but thanks to the collapse of the Greenland block which brought persistent NNW air flow over the UK, we can finally begin to draw on air from the opposite direction. The abrupt flip from winter to summer is reflective of moody El Nino springs. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Expect to see […]
The El Nino of 2016 had significant influence on the boreal winter of 2015-16 and it’s influence is now extending into spring. However, the El Nino is on it’s way out and giving way to likely La Nina conditions by mid to late summer but the ground work of the decaying El Nino will have already shaped the upper atmosphere […]
The meteorological summer forecast 2016 is based upon past, present and projected SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) atmospheric conditions and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Background Following a record tying strong El Nino which peaked in autumn 2015 and profoundly influenced the cold season of 2015-16, there is significantly weakening which will have affect on the summer. Expect to see […]
As I write this post, another potent low is crossing the Four Corners bringing yet another snowstorm to Colorado including Denver while Texas gets more heavy, flooding rains. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] This system pushes Denver’s precip above normal for the 7th straight month! This snow could be followed by another Sunday which would make for a 3rd […]
In moderate to strong El Nino years gone by, often the heart of the winter produces little snow and cold and is dominated by mild, unsettled but these non El Nino winters have been know to bring unusually cold springs. 2016 will be remembered for a largely non winter followed by winter conditions through mid and late April. Classic -NAO following strong SSWE supports […]
It sure is slow but the end to winter is in sight but not before we see the old man throw his last dagger. It’s a tough call as to elevation but low pressure moving into Scotland today could present disruptive snow later today into tomorrow across Scotland! Major high level roads arteries including M74, A9, A82, A96 could all be subject to disruption […]
We’ve seen a big increase in rainfall over Texas in recent weeks thanks to a pronounced southerly stream enhanced by the decaying El Nino. This has wiped out the drought. The wet pattern isn’t ending soon as the trough holding over the Four Corners will seen further lows swing through and once over the S Rockies, […]
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