Rest of Europe
It’s been an unusually mild spell following a chilly start to December but there’s good model agreement that the chill is returning along with increased potential for snowfall. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] GFS 7-day mean 2-metre temperature anomalies show Europe turning cold. While Christmas looks largely clear, calm and seasonably cold, it’s all eyes on the upcoming […]
It’s been a very wet weekend and start to Christmas week over the UK thanks to a stuck pattern with connection to the tropics. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The reason for such persistent, heavy rains is simple, we’ve a major split in the jet coming off North America. The N branch lifts north and the southern branch drops […]
Rain is heavy and persistent over the Northwest UK right now and you can see in the visible satellite imagery below, that cloud and moisture extends way out into the Atlantic with sub-tropical origin. The sub-tropical or southern branch jet stream is at work. The polar jet or northern branch is to the north. [s2If […]
A strong westerly (zonal) flow over the next 3 to 5 days means mild with a lot of rain for Ireland and western Great Britain. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] There after, little change in the overall thinking with turn to colder just in time for Christmas and potentially much colder there after. Modelling is fluctuating in it’s day to day solutions but […]
As expected, after a milder few days, the cold and snow is back over Highland Scotland with a cold WNW flow. Here’s the current view along the A9 at Drumnochter Summit. Slochd Summit [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] There are minor adjustments in the GFS pre-Christmas solution but the overall theme remains the same. We will continue to see […]
Well I was on the road from lunchtime yesterday till the early hours of this morning and when I got up, I was half expecting to come on here this morning to see a warmer run of the GFS for Christmas. Well that’s not the case and continues to show a cold Christmas and even colder […]
Unfortunately I’m about to hit the road so just a brief write-up today. Be sure to watch the video for more details. Modelling continues to lean more and more towards the cold idea for the end of December beginning of January with blocking over Davis Straits and Greenland. The latest GFS is pretty wild and […]
The current up and down pattern looks to remain through Christmas Day with the models pushing a low across (just north of Scotland) Christmas Day which could drive enough Greenland source air behind to make for a chilly day with snow showers pushing across the Northern UK. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The best chance of a ‘white […]
I am becoming increasingly optimistic and excited about the end of December, beginning of January period as the models keep showing what all winter lovers want to see, a -NAO/AO with blocking highs over both Alaska and Greenland which hook up resulting in twin negatives underneath. IMAGE CREDIT: William Smith [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Up till now we’ve […]
I see little change in this cold, unsettled NORTHWEST driven pattern for UK and near continent next 10 days or so but as we head towards Christmas and particularly New Year/early January, I like what the models are beginning to see. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] CFSv2 week 3 and 4 as shown in the video shows building […]
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