It’s been an unusually mild spell following a chilly start to December but there’s good model agreement that the chill is returning along with increased potential for snowfall.

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GFS 7-day mean 2-metre temperature anomalies show Europe turning cold.

While Christmas looks largely clear, calm and seasonably cold, it’s all eyes on the upcoming weekend system. A lot of uncertainty around this because track is everything. The models are all over the place with regard to the longer term pattern as pointed out yesterday but as for this storm, the latest GFS takes the deep low EAST across the UK into the North Sea, that could still bring snow to northern parts of the UK whereas the ECMWF takes the low directly south where it pulls in colder air and increases the threat for snow in further south locales. This is the first real chance of seeing a significant snow event this winter.

I am becoming increasingly confident that we will see snowfall and at low elevations too but exactly where? It’s tough to say because each model run is bringing a slightly different solution and like I’ve said already, track is everything!

GFS

GFS snow cover through 120 hrs

Looks like Denmark is turning pretty white along with parts of Western Germany and the interior Netherlands!

Southeast England’s turn?

ECMWF

ECMWF snow cover through 120 hrs

GFS and ECMWF both agree on a cold Christmas with frost both sides of the big day with highs of just 2-5C over Northern and central parts of the UK and Ireland, a mere 6 or 7C down around the London/Southeast area. A cold high builds in for Boxing Day and so a hard frost is likely with towns and cities down to between -2 and +2, rural areas maybe down to -6 or -7 in spots. If there’s snow on the ground, it may be several degrees colder still.

More tomorrow. Be sure to watch this morning’s video for the discussion.

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