The current up and down pattern looks to remain through Christmas Day with the models pushing a low across (just north of Scotland) Christmas Day which could drive enough Greenland source air behind to make for a chilly day with snow showers pushing across the Northern UK.
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The best chance of a ‘white Christmas’ looks to be mountainous areas of Scotland, maybe including the N Pennines. Certainly not a repeat of last Christmas which was warm, in fact the warmest on record for N Ireland and nearly for Scotland too. We saw low teens for highs and widespread gales with 100 mph winds blasting Orkney.
Because we have a rush of mild ahead of each system, it’s still too early to time things just right. Christmas Eve looks fairly mild, Christmas Day colder, Boxing Day possibly colder still but IF that projected low passing by happens to be 12 to 24 hours slower, then it might be a warmer Christmas or colder if it speeds up. Right now model consensus takes the centre either across or just north of Scotland but if the track happened to be further south which a few solutions do see, then it could be a whiter Christmas than we think..
Here’s how the two main models see Christmas Day. Two quite different scenarios. ECMWF has a faster and slightly further south track than the GFS.
ECMWF
GFS
As pointed out several times now. It’s the period following Christmas that has my attention and certainly the CFSv2 January forecast has my attention also.
If this happens, we’ve got an exciting month coming up.
There’s a lot leaning towards the above now. AO and NAO is going to my ideas as we head for the heart of winter!
Just look at the AO!
More tomorrow. Be sure to watch today’s video for more.
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The GFS seems to be showing a very stormy spell from the 27th December down here in the South East, what are your thoughts on this Mark please 🙂
Hi Perry, Fair question. Drivers supporting cold often (not always) which then delivers for the US. Take last winter for example. Warm NE Pac water supported Alaska ridge and it delivered the coldest winter to US since 96. There are more signals supporting cold this winter and therefore I am confident the US will get another bad one. Because we are a small island, even with all the support for cold, it doesn’t mean IT WILL happen. It’s tougher to get cold in the UK than the US simply because we’re surrounded by mild ocean, downwind of the NATURAL westerly flow and solar is more of an influence on us during winter than the US. Last winter saw a maximum yet the US still saw one of the worst winters. For us, that maximum brought us one of the warmest winters. The US is connected to the arctic, less influenced by warm ocean… well this has turned into a post, lol. Hope this helps.
Many thanks. Keeping the fingers and toes crossed. Hopefully the snow will return before we go skiing in February as their is little their at the moment.
Just a quick one how come you seam more confident with the usa than you do with the uk