I see little change in this cold, unsettled NORTHWEST driven pattern for UK and near continent next 10 days or so but as we head towards Christmas and particularly New Year/early January, I like what the models are beginning to see.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

CFSv2 week 3 and 4 as shown in the video shows building heights into Alaska, the Arctic and more importantly for us here in Western Europe, build-up of a strong blocking high extending from the North Atlantic up into Greenland.

Look at where the negatives go. Right to the analogs based on the east QBO, weak Nino and SSTA package.

Though the science is improving, there are still vast gaps at predicting particularly the period beyond a week or two and so when building a winter or indeed summer forecast, one must understand all the major drivers that produce a certain weather pattern. By understanding the drivers, their reaction to certain times of the year as well as what’s happened in the past, you get a better handle at what might be ahead.

I have pegged January and February as the two months which will bring the worst of winter however severe it might be. Given the east QBO, solar downturn and SST anomalies I believed LATE DECEMBER would see the development of a Greenland block and so the 2nd big test of this year’s forecast is fast approaching. I believe this winter’s gotten off to a good start with some snow, ice and cold impacting Western Europe, primarily UK and Ireland but I think things will get more interesting if we get that -NAO combined with -AO as Siberian air may become involved not just here but in such areas as the Low Countries up to Denmark and perhaps southern Norway and Sweden.

GFS ensemble supports the classic Davis Straits/Greenland block ( Alaska to Greenland ridge) which focuses the trough over the eastern US and UK/Western Europe.

Day 0-7

7-14

9-16

Latest run of the GFS suggests a cold NW flow with possible snow showers over the UK and Ireland Christmas Eve, Day and Boxing Day!

THIS WILL SHIFT, CHOP AND CHANGE!

See video for more.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]