A strong westerly (zonal) flow over the next 3 to 5 days means mild with a lot of rain for Ireland and western Great Britain.

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There after, little change in the overall thinking with turn to colder just in time for Christmas and potentially much colder there after. Modelling is fluctuating in it’s day to day solutions but aren’t loosing the cold theme with blocking highs in appropriate positions.

Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation still projected to go negative.

See the northward push of positive over Alaska and the Davis Straits from week 1 into 2 off the GFS ensemble. This would ultimately shut down the dominant WESTERLY oceanic air flow currently influencing North America and Europe. The northern door is opened.

Day 0-7

7-14

ECMWF day 3-10 agrees

So too does the EPS control

7-14

8-15

Could this cold theme for the end of December, start of January still bust? Chances or lowering based on cross model agreement and consistency.

My next fear with a busted ‘cold forecast’ would be that the pattern develops but the block is in the wrong place. We saw this in winter 2011-12. Brutal cold affected most of mainland Europe but the majority of that outbreak remained on the wrong side of the North Sea. I believe we will turn cold to very cold still between Christmas and New Year!

See video for discussion.

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