Well I was on the road from lunchtime yesterday till the early hours of this morning and when I got up, I was half expecting to come on here this morning to see a warmer run of the GFS for Christmas. Well that’s not the case and continues to show a cold Christmas and even colder following few days.

The good news is it appears mild through the first half of Christmas week for those hitting the road.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

But come Christmas, it all changes, check this out.

Check out the striking similarity between the above 216 hour and the below surface map for Dec 16, 2010 during the heart of the coldest December on record.

This was the result of the UK’s coldest December in 100 years.

The GFS is certaintly teasing us big time with these arctic runs but the golden question is, will it happen in really. Given the setup and the strong lean towards blocking with a high -NAO potential, I think this is very possible but because of the past and how super cold runs end up busting, I am still cautious.

Here’s the 500mb height anomaly out at 216 hours. Europe is flooded by arctic air with this kind of trough. Look out Michael, your getting blasted with snow and frigid winds in Denmark too!

So, do we see a white Christmas in the UK, Ireland or near continent?

GFS really builds the snow cover between 168 and 276 hrs across Europe and the UK.

Lovin the GFS 7-day mean 500mb anomalies. Tasty!

GFS ensemble 15 day AO, NAO forecast

It’s still a tough call but a lot depends on just how much cold air sweeps in on the backside of this low. Higher parts of the UK could well see another white one but as for lower elevations, it’s still to close to call this far out.

Given the model trends and recent ‘very cold runs’, could we see a December 2010 repeat? Unlikely and the reason is it would take a heck of a lot to go to those extremes.

Can it be completely ruled out? Well no but when looking back at past extremes such as 09-10 and the first half of 10-11, those were winters which saw an all out solar minimum and really the worst of our winters occur when the solar cycle is in the bottom of the tank.

That’s why I don’t think we’re heading for another extreme, all-time record cold spell. Remember that winter saw -20C in England for the first time since Jan 87, -18.7C at Castlederg in Northern Ireland was all-time record for the country along with a record maximum of -11C. That was Northern Ireland’s coldest day on record and it takes a heck of a lot to get near that. In saying that, nature often brings surprises, who knows what this time may bring. We may get an all or nothing winter. There’s certainly potential here for some significant winter weather. Who knows.

See video…

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Tags: arctic oscillation, Europe cold blast, europe snow, north atlantic oscillation, stratospheric warming, sudden stratospheric warming event, UK cold snap, UK Snow