The polar vortex has been weak but is now in a state of recover at 10mb over the next 10 days.

This coincides with a positive AO/NAO as we go through the 2nd half of December.

This correlates to a more zonal hemispheric flow pattern and so North America and Europe become strongly influenced by Pacific and Atlantic. Enjoy the relatively tranquil weekend/early next week ahead as it’s all change Wednesday onwards.

The region east of Newfoundland/south of Greenland is a low pressure breeding ground where the jet stream is strongest but as we progress through next week, the low pressure incubator and region of significant deepening shifts east towards Iceland and therefore low pressure will drive a stormier theme into Ireland, UK and Northwest Europe.

The first severe gales may affect Western Scotland Wednesday with the first major frontal system. Remember the first and only named storm so far affected southern England and Wales but I imagine in the upcoming 10 days or so we’ll get our 2nd, 3rd perhaps 4th named storm with more influence on Northern UK.

A more pronounced low arrives next weekend.

Watch today’s video.