Firstly a quick glance back at May. Unsurprisingly, it was warmer and drier than normal for the UK and across Northern Europe but cooler than normal from Portugal to Turkey with some areas, primarily France, Germany and central Europe witnessing record rainfall.

As expected, the ridge has built south with it’s core peaking in strength and firmly dominated across the UK, today, for many is likely the warmest day of the year so far.

GFS surface for this afternoon.

Expect a few sharp heat induced thunderstorms to bubble up this afternoon, especially in more western parts.

Yesterday was the UK’s warmest so far.

Meanwhile, while fine, dry, sunny and warm here, skies continue to rumble away over Europe.

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Happen to be on holiday this week? You’ve got a superb week of weather though if heading off with the caravan, don’t forget the raincoats as well as sunscreen as this air mass is humid and with strong daytime surface heating, thunderstorms will bubble up, hit and miss and hard to predict where but get under one and you’ll know all about it. My best bet is further central and west, less chance along the North Sea Coast where there’s a cooling onshore sea breeze.

Change By Week’s End!

Each and every afternoon today through Thursday looks much the same but a slight cooling trend is likely late week with a system bringing something a little more unsettled by Friday-Saturday, particularly for Ireland, Scotland and west Wales/England. According to the GFS this signals a chance that have been harping on about for some time now.

GFS ensemble confirms my thinking that once again pattern shifts with Icelandic low pressure returning and shifting the high back southward, this is here to stay for a while!

See this morning’s video.

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