Temps continue to climb further north over the British Isles while it continues to cool further south over Iberia, even Morocco and Algeria. In fact, London could be warmer than many Mediterranean resorts tomorrow while Scotland and Northern Ireland should see the first 20s of the year.

What a difference two weeks makes in Paris. Yesterday it climbed to 26C which was the warmest day of the year so far while back on April 26 it was snowing!

Yesterday

April 26 (a snowy view from the Eiffel Tower!)

Current 500mb height anomaly chart for Europe.

Temps should top 25C today (warmest for early May since 2011).

26 or 27C Sunday (warmest for early May since 2008).

By Monday with low pressure firmly in charge of SW Europe airspace and high pressure extending from Iceland to Scandinavia, the core of warmth is across Scotland, Denmark and Scandinavia. Warmth in place and a stiff ESE flow should instigate downslope compressional warming (fohen effect) within sheltered glens of the NW Highlands. How warm? I expect a potential 26C in prone locales such as Kinlochewe. If Scotland exceeds 25C (77F), this would be the warmest for early May since 2001.

For Northern Ireland, 25C is hard to come by in early May. Last time it was this warm, this early was 1990. There’s an outside chance of 25C in sheltered western parts such as Castlederg but I think it’s unlikely.

Belgium, Netherlands and many parts of the UK should be warmer than much of Morocco and Spain.

BTW, North Sea waters are sitting at around 8C at best and so today, tomorrow and Monday will see plenty of coastal low cloud, mist and haar. As the land warms, so the cooler air from the sea is drawn inland, hence the ‘sea breeze’ and that breeze blowing over 6-8C water will feel cold! where as 20 miles inland it could be 23C+ and sunny! Expect temperatures to remain very cool with seaside towns struggling to reach 10C.

The very system WNW of Spain drove energy east into the hot air over west Sahara Africa and sparked severe thunderstorms over Morocco and Algeria last night.

Check out the incredible hail accumulation in Constantine, Algeria.

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Dramatic Temperature Swing Next Week

It looks like we have two seasons next week, starting off with mid summer conditions while by the end of the week and into next weekend, we may very well be talking a chilly northerly breeze and even snow back over the Highlands.

The NAO is slightly positive hence the ridge over W Europe but as that ridge lifts north it eventually retrogrades back towards Iceland and Greenland this opens the northern door once again with the -NAO pattern making a comeback.

ESE winds to start the week but N wind to end the week.

Monday

Friday

GFS 500mb height anomaly/surface/temp anomaly for late next week.

See this morning’s video.

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