You have to go back to January 1994 for the last time New York’s Central Park last recorded 0F. Since then, winter by winter, the models have seen NYC dipping below 0 but it’s never materialised. The closest it came was back in January 2004 when the park hit 1F twice during a particularly cold January with a high only topping 15 degrees.

The next closest was just last February when it dipped to 2F. Most winters see single digits but it’s much harder, not unprecedented by any means, to see 0.

All things must come together just right, snow cover, strong arctic high pressure, thickness down to 496dm with northerly flow driving down the Hudson Valley.

This upcoming Valentine’s weekend will see all of the above as one heck of a strong, bitterly cold trough descends over the Northeast. This could be a piece of the polar vortex that’s split thanks to the strong strat warming.

For NYC, this could be the coldest weekend in years with a very real threat at 0.

Both GFS and ECMWF have snow on the ground.

Both GFS and ECMWF have thicknesses down around 492 and 482 respectively down below Central Park.

Both GFS and ECMWF also take the -30C line at 850mb within just 25-50 miles of NYC.

As for 2 metre temperature at 6z or 12z Sunday, well both get down to around 0F.

Annual minimum temperatures recorded in Central Park since 1950.

Year….Annual Minimum Temperature

2015… 2

2014…4
2013…11
2012…13
2011…6
2010..13
2009…6
2008..10
2007…8
2006…15
2005…5
2004…1
2003..7
2002..19
2001…16
2000…3
1999…9
1998…14
1997…4
1996…5
1995…6
1994…-2
1993…7
1992…11
1991…10
1990…7
1989…6
1988…5
1987…4
1986…8
1985…-2
1984…8
1983..4
1982…0
1981…2
1980…-1
1979…0
1978…10
1977…-2
1976…-1
1975…15
1974…6
1973…7
1972…5
1971…4
1970…3
1969…11
1968…-1
1967…4
1966…8
1965…9
1964…9
1963…-2
1962….4
1961…-2
1960…8
1959…7
1958…3
1957…0
1956…14
1955…0
1954…7
1953…14
1952…8
1951…8
1950…5

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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