After two straight +NAO winters, this year looks different as our prevailing flow continues to blow in from the EAST. The past two Octobers and following winters have been firm westerly.

Despite a return to more Atlantic weather this week, confidence lessons beyond 7 days with some models showing the return of northern blocking and others showing a more active Atlantic pattern holding.

The CFSv2 weeklies show the Scandinavian positive coming back and doesn’t want to leave. The reason could well be the increasing warmth surrounding Iceland coinciding with the seasonal shift.

Sure, there’s high confidence that the pattern changes this week with return of Atlantic low pressure bringing wet & windy conditions.

Lots of uncertainty beyond 7 days.

CFSv2

GFS ensemble

I’m pretty confident that we see more POSITIVE NAO and a more active pattern during November. Reasons i’ll share in coming days.

See video for more.

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