Well, the medium to long range period is becoming harder to forecast. We’re about to enter a transitional period where summer wanes and autumn begins. Always a challenging time for forecasting. Especially when we’re experiencing such a strong El Nino and we have such a chilly AMO.

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Following a spell of relatively settled conditions, both GFS and ECMWF show a series of unusually deep lows moving in starting this weekend and lasting into early September.

Track will be important because this will determine how warm it will be and as of now, it looks like the 3 lows set to make significant impact over the next 10 days moves generally SW to NE across the UK. This keeps much of Europe dry and warm with further surges of warm, humid air into the UK ahead of approaching fronts.

As already stated, the first low hits this weekend bringing heavy rain and gales, another 2 systems are on the charts later next week into the following week which takes us into early September.

The mean position of Atlantic trough and Europe ridge is consistent with the overall summer setup this year.

These lows are deeper than normal due to the sharp gradient in Atlantic SSTA with likely linkage between strong El Nino, more highly amplified pattern and the hot, dry conditions over the continent. I recon the Atlantic cool vs warm has been the primary driver this summer with strong El Nino also playing a part.

On a side note, we’re in the midst of house buying and we move out of here on August 28 so there’s a lot up in the air but rest assured I will still be posting each day but if content becomes a little less towards LATE AUGUST, I’m sure you’ll understand.

Here’s the GFS surface charts shown in today’s video.

This GFS ENS 2 metre temp anomaly pattern for the upcoming 15 days has been consistent through summer 2015. Question is, do we get a break in September?

See today’s video for the discussion.

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