Long have we forgotten about the hot sunny days which started this month off. Temperatures are more reflective of October now while it is as wet and windy as October too. I’ve given my reasons as to why this is and why this was forecasted here for months.

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While it’s a wet and very windy open to July’s final week, it looks likely to remain on the chilly side I’m afraid as winds turn northerly Tuesday-Wednesday with low pressure, currently over the UK, sliding east into Denmark.

As for today, it’s windy for most but particularly so over southern Ireland, England and Wales as gales and high waves batter the coasts. On the north side of this stretched out low draped across the central UK, winds are blowing in from the east off the cold waters of the North Sea. This is supressing air temperatures to only 10-15C during the PM hours, that’s close to 10C below normal in some places.

Here’s today’s surface chart off the GFS.

Check out how strong the winds are across southern Ireland, Wales and England.

There’s even warnings out.

Once this low shifts east, a cool northerly sets in holding down temps by day and particularly by night.

5k temps get colder and colder. Don’t be surprised to hear of snow falling over the tops of the Highlands.

As high pressure starts to build Wednesday, the cool air in place, lighter wind and clear sky regime could make for a record cold late July night in some rural areas. Minus values can’t be ruled out early Thursday AM.

As we depart this working week, winds begin to turn SW as a low sends a front down across Scotland, Northern Ireland and N England. While it stays cool but slightly less cool, it’s points further south that should benefit from more sun and warmer temps as modest subtropical air makes a comeback.

I hate to say it but I’m not seeing any sign of real summer warmth returning through at least the first half of August!

GFS operational 5-day mean 2m temps/anomalies continue with the cool theme through August 11. Modest warming for the extreme SE of the UK and near continent but central and northern areas of the UK including Ireland remain shivering!

See this morning’s video for the latest discussion.

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