We have at least less potency in Atlantic lows this week but their presence is still being felt as they may be responsible for flipping the North and Northwest UK into ‘below normal territory’ for July, erasing the incredibly warm start.

We started the month like this…

We’re now at this…

With the last 10 days of July looking like this…

I expect the month to wind up below normal across most of the UK and certainly Ireland, following in May and June’s footsteps.

Remember what August is looking like on the models.

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Although the lows are weaker this week, they will still enhance the breeze across Northern and Western parts along with the shower activity and longer spells of rain at times but most noticeable will be the cool feel. Don’t be surprised if it snows over Scotland’s highest peaks.

Mind winds on Cairngorm Summit topped 91 mph just a few days ago. Strongest for UK in July since at least 1996. Funnily enough May 2015 was coolest for UK since 1996.

There’s some uncertainty regarding a southern track low late week into the weekend which may affect Southern Britain and Ireland. Exactly how far north or south it tracks remains to be seen. Overall we have a cool NNW flow this week, breezy mid week across NI and Scotland especially with the presence of low pressure just to the north. Once that system moves into the Norwegian Sea, we have our first trough driving summertime variety arctic air. Then we’ve got another system which looks more noteworthy with it’s wind and rain early next week.

Here’s the ECMWF surface charts I showed in this morning’s video.

Check out the trough which this pattern supports over the UK/Ireland which will keep us solidly in below normal temperature territory.

Check out this CENTRAL HIGHLANDS meteogram plot for the next 8 days. Significantly suppressed temperatures. Not even a 15C maximum! Ouch!

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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