Tell me, where would you rather be today… London where it may top 27C or Summit Camp, Greenland where it’s currently -27C?

Not a fan of the heat? Well you catch a break in the wake of today’s thunderstorms and persistent rains of tomorrow (across Wales and central swathe of England). MUCH cooler across Northern Ireland and Scotland during Saturday as the low to the south pulls in a cool air flow off the Norwegian Sea. We will see plenty of cloud and possible outbreaks of showery rain too. A cooler but still mild day to the south of the boundary with 18-22C across Southern England from Bristol to London.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We shall cool things down further through the weekend and bottoming out temperature wise by Monday with highs across the board at between 10-18C, below normal for mid June as high pressure pulls in a distinctly fresh NW flow off Greenland and the Arctic!

The models (both GFS and ECMWF) have shifted slightly on next week’s scenario. They both agree on high pressure rebuilding early next week but from a more WSW direction which leads to a frontal boundary sinking south into Scotland and Northern Ireland creating somewhat of a NW to SE divide with cool, potentially damp in the North, warmer, sunnier in the South where highs may push 28C before the front dives south replacing the warm, subtropical air with much cooler, fresher air around Thu-Friday with NW flow once again before another surge in heights kicks in late next week, encompassing all of Ireland and the UK once again.

The near continent extending from northern France up through the Low Countries into Denmark and southern Norway and Sweden, it stays on the whole dry, settled back a back and forth in temperature.

GFS scenario.

ECMWF scenario.

The GFS ensemble goes from below normal to normal in it’s 5 day mean 2 metre temps through the next 15 days.

Latest soil moisture anomaly across Europe. UK looking in good shape and should see an increase in green after the rain of the upcoming 36 hours. This should help make for that ‘mixed summer’ I’ve been harping on about. Where dry, expect it to get hot into the heart of summer.

See today’s video for the latest discussion. Will have more tomorrow.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]