The latest CFSv2 weeklies are out and they want to hold the mean ridge over the UK and Ireland through most of October.

CFSv2 for October

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As you can see it shows wetter than normal!

The Southern half of the UK down into the near continent should stay much drier than normal given the lows pass north of Scotland and so the wettest, windiest weather should always be further north.

Look at the projected forecast above to October 2009.

However this doesn’t mean it will be as dry as September’s been. I think the pattern the ECMWF is suggesting as shown in this morning’s video and in the below surface charts, is how next month will playout. In other word’s we do have systems passing to our north but associated cold front’s will bring spells of wind and rain. In between each system which passes say every 2-4 days, well significant height rises look to occur. With southerly air flows come unusual warmth.

See this morning’s video for discussion.

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