As stated in recent days, when you’ve got a large banana shaped high spanning much of the Northern US and Canada, you’ve got to watch underneath where heights are naturally lower. The threat this week is not so much from a true tropical entity but a rouge system which runs north, hugging the Eastern Seaboard.

Here’s the 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly for North America.

5-day mean temps/anomalies. Large area of NA above normal but note the central and eastern US is slightly below normal.

This little system may not look like much on the surface pressure maps but feeding off warm water and a Gulf Stream it’s going to cause travel issues up the I-95 with a tropical injection likely to bring torrential rain and flooding.

Look for heavy, persistent rainfall from the Carolinas all the way to New York, possibly southern New England with embedded thunderstorms which could drop 1-3″ per hour rains. As well as the driving rain, wind will also be noteworthy with the models showing 35-4o knot winds blowing in from the ocean. A nasty situation for those perhaps seeking a late season getaway at the Jersey Shore.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Latest GFS surface chart.

Models indicate uniform 2-4″ amounts, locally 6″.

ECMWF suggests winds will be howling along the Mid-Atlantic coast!

We’re looking at widespread 25-35 mph gusts but locally 40-50 mph is quite possible from the Delmarva up the Jersey shore.

Here’s some current web cameras up the East Coast today!

Wilson, NC

Washington DC

Philadelphia, PA

Meanwhile the Pacific Northwest is getting hit by the season’s first big storm. Plenty more to come…

Will have a video later today!

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]