While it’s a fairly benign weather pattern across Western and Northern Europe, it’s been far from benign in south-central areas of the continent. In yesterday’s post I showed you the snow in Italy’s Alps and Apennines but major flooding has occurred in coastal southern Croatia from the very system that brought the early but not unprecedented snowfall.

The city of Dubrovnic bore the brunt of the rainfall with over 200mm or over a month’s worth falling within 24 hours thanks to severe thunderstorms hanging over the region. The below ECMWF surface maps show that pesky low drifting gradually eastward along the north shores of the Med in the coming days.

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Europe Outlook

We have two high’s at the moment, 1) draped from Ireland to Russia, 2) is out over the Atlantic. In between there’s a developing low and that low appears to drift east Fri-Sun making for a slightly disappointing weekend across Ireland and the UK. Now the GFS has that system leaving back is followed by another system whereas the ECMWF brings the Atlantic high in over Ireland and the UK. This could make the difference between the return of drier, settled and where the sun shines, warmer or the continuation of showers/longer spells of rain and cooler temps.

Here’s a look at the better ECMWF solution for the next 10 days.

As you can see below, both ECMWF (3-10 day) and GFS ensemble have the mean ridge placed further north across Scandinavia with southern flank reaching the UK.

ECMWF

GFS ensemble

At a course in Glasgow today so no Europe video. US posts will be available later.

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