After a storm past 12-24 hours, the medium term upper pattern is shifting with heights lowering in the west and rising in the east.

If you live here in Scotland, enjoy today’s warm sunshine as rain spreads in from the Atlantic tonight into tomorrow. We’ll see frequent spells of rain/showers through the rest of this week with a much cooler feed from the WNW. As for England and Wales, it’s a decent week, driest and warmest the further south and east you are.

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It’s been an impressive week for warmth over the UK and most of Europe except for the far south where it’s ‘typically warm and sunny’. Western Scotland and Scandinavia has seen the greatest anomalies in the past week as you can see from the below chart from NOAA.

Unsurprisingly it’s been rather dry as a result of high pressure dominance.

The cooler and damper weather will advance south through this week and by the weekend it looks like all see rain and a fresher air mass and that appears to be the theme through at least the first week of August. A similar start to the final month of metrological summer as July was.

Upcoming 7 day mean 500mb height anomalies off the GFS.

The 8-14 day (below) shows a deepening of the trough just off western Ireland. Could this suggest a greater and more dominant pattern shift than previously thought?

Even the ECMWF stands by the GFS idea.

Going to be an interesting upcoming 3-5 week period.

See today’s video for more!

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