Your probably tired of seeing the word cold in the 1-2 week forecast but I’m afraid there is little else to say on the subject. Check out the very latest CFSv2 forecast through the next 4 WEEKS. There is one constant message and that is heat will not be the story. It comes north out of Mexico only to be smashed down by another unusually deep trough.

SEE VIDEO FOR DISCUSSION

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In saying that, let’s not forget the fact that it has been warm Out West. You’ll have noticed just how hot these air masses over the West Coast and Great Basin have become when the Plains and Midwest see days 10-25 below normal. In order to get extreme cold, you have to have extreme cold somewhere else at this time of year.

While the US continues to ask the question, ‘where’s summer?’, we here in Europe are asking, what’s going on… two great July’s in a row here in the UK? Must be global warming right? Just kidding!

What’s interesting is that as I look at the longer range modelling, while the CFSv2 agrees with the Jamstec on the central Pacific based El Nino next winter, the forecasted temperatures for the Dec through Feb period are quite different.

While the CFSv2 flips from this seemingly endless cold pattern into the 2014-15 winter, the more logical Jamstec has it cold in the East and Southeast US.

CFSv2

Jamstec

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