Archive for June, 2014
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As expected, it was a stormy day on the Plains yesterday. Right where the SPC had a moderate risk out 2-3 days in advance. Here’s the current 500mb (upper) pattern which supports the stormy central states. Along with the strong storms producing damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes. Heavy, flooding rains have also occurred. [s2If […]
Warm, largely fine, dry and settled weather looks to dominate Western Europe through the next 7 days, possibly the following 7. Here’s the 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies for Europe. The core of high pressure will sit right where the mean low was during the previous 7-10 days. ECMWF GFS [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Nice warm temps with sun, cloud […]
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As per yesterday’s video, the weather is looking very promising indeed through the next 10 days as high pressure builds and settles westward over the NE Atlantic extending into the UK and western European mainland. This is largely down to a deep trough that’s dropped into eastern Europe which has brought welcome heat relief. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Check […]
The latest system diving into the Rockies and Plains will present a renewed MODERATE risk for severe weather Saturday. The SPC is out early with a moderate risk over the Central Plains. Here’s the 500mb height chart for 18z Saturday. Note the trough diving into the Four Corners with energy rounding the base. Perfect setup for strong […]
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I want to look today at the big contradiction with the modelling looking out through the next 1-3 weeks. Where the ECMWF has a deepening trough (N Rockies/W Plains) in the next 10 days, the GFS operational and ensembles show a ridge! Both models are in agreement about the initial trough diving down the Plains which in […]
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Well it’s looking like modelling is in good agreement about the ridge, that’s now centred over the UK and Ireland will hold through the next 10-16 days in the means. It’s all thanks to a trough dropping and deepening over Russia down into the Ukraine where the heat has been strongest of late. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] […]
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