Warm, largely fine, dry and settled weather looks to dominate Western Europe through the next 7 days, possibly the following 7.

Here’s the 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies for Europe. The core of high pressure will sit right where the mean low was during the previous 7-10 days.

ECMWF

GFS

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Nice warm temps with sun, cloud mix will dominate Ireland, the UK and West of the mainland. Highs range between 19-25C with a humid feel.

The GFS and ECMWF go their separate ways for week 2 or Day 3 through 10 with ECMWF taking the ridge further out into the North Atlantic while GFS takes the ridge north into the Norwegian Sea. Either way, it turns cooler, likely a touch more unsettled again.

ECMWF

GFS

CFSv2 shows strong Ireland ridge week 1, weakening but still in place week 2, then trough replacement week 3 and 4.

Interestingly the CFSv2 shows a warm July for the UK and W Europe despite below normal heights into the opening 1-2 weeks of the month in the CFSv2 weeklies.

Latest On El Nino

The latest CFSv2 keeps with the weak to moderate El Nino through the remainder of 2014 into early 2015.

Nino 1.2

Nino 3.4

Note warmest waters are out over the central Pacific which supports the below forecast for next winter off the Jamstec.

Jamstec shows a warm June-August period for pretty much all of Europe, cool for central and southern USA.

Then it goes back to average or slightly below average temps for NW Iberia up into the UK and Ireland for the Sep-Oct period.

The model remains consistent with below normal temps next winter (Dec-Feb) from Western Europe and the Eastern USA.

Also interesting to see the CFSv2 putting arctic sea ice ABOVE NORMAL this summer. Hum, why might that be? Likely the colder AMO signal which came on last winter.

Influence on next winter, like with the SST, solar and volcanic activity?

See today’s video for more on the upcoming week.

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