As expected, it was a stormy day on the Plains yesterday. Right where the SPC had a moderate risk out 2-3 days in advance.

Here’s the current 500mb (upper) pattern which supports the stormy central states.

Along with the strong storms producing damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes. Heavy, flooding rains have also occurred.

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The pattern very much becomes west trough/east ridge based through the next 7 days with further systems pushing into the Pacific Northwest which in turns deepens and holds the western trough while boosts an eastern ridge which should present the first truly ‘hot weather’ for the Mid-Atlantic, possibly north into the New York City areas.

ECMWF 70day mean 500mb height anomalies through next 7 days.

Check out the 500mb chart by 12z Wed. Note the trough over the Great Basin vs ridge extending from Louisiana up to southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio across to Virginia. This entire region should climb into the 90s Wednesday and Thursday PM’s. How far north the heat gets remains unknown. Till now, a cool easterly flow has held NYC highs below 90 this year.

Surface at 84 hrs.

While cool with the potential for high elevation snow over Wyoming again, the severe weather threat could become significant mid to late week out on the Plains again.

Here’s the 500mb height anomaly for the same period.

This setup with western trough vs strong south and east ridge, the biggest rains are likely in the central plains and Midwest.

The pattern remains progressive despite the western trough hanging on. Systems which enter the Pacific Northwest, should exit off the Northeast coast 5-7 days later, so no strong Bermuda high holds, keeping it hot for very long.

The CFSv2 shows the heat which pushes east this week then is followed by cool as the PNW systems pushes east.

Recent runs of the CFSv2 weeklies have shown near persistent cool across the bulk of the country but the latest run sees heat build over the Plains, spreading east week 3 and 4. So, it warm to hot through the upcoming 7, followed by cool the following 7 but more heat is seen building and spreading east the following 2 weeks which takes us well into July.

Caution regarding the intensity and duration of any building heat is needed, given the amount of water in the ground over the central plains into the MS/OH/TN Valleys.

As per my US summer forecast, models appear to be going to my cool, wet summer idea. Rain subsequent cool temps will be the headline maker this year, not heat and drought.

Latest On El Nino

The latest CFSv2 keeps with the weak to moderate El Nino through the remainder of 2014 into early 2015.

Nino 1.2

Nino 3.4

Note warmest waters are out over the central Pacific which supports the below forecast for next winter off the Jamstec.

The positioning of that warm water over the equatorial Pacific will be key as to where the mean ridge trough position is over the US as we push through fall and next winter.

As well as the Nino, keep in mind that the solar cycle has just peaked and heading down. The peak which occurred back in February was much weaker than the previous cycle 23. This is likely to encourage another winter with strong high latitude blocking and sudden stratospheric warming events.

Jamstec shows a cool June-August period thanks in part to the ‘hangover effect’ of last winter, where the ground is currently wettest as well as the influence of the oncoming El Nino.

Cooling expands over the country for the Sep-Oct period.

The model remains consistent with below normal temps next winter (Dec-Feb) for the Eastern US.

The low solar cycle, increased equatorial volcanic influence and weak to moderate ‘modoki’ El Nino all point to another cold winter.

Also interesting to see the CFSv2 putting arctic sea ice ABOVE NORMAL this summer. Hum, why might that be? Could it possibly be the colder AMO signal which came on last winter?

Influence on next winter, like with the SST, solar and volcanic activity?

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