I want to look today at the big contradiction with the modelling looking out through the next 1-3 weeks.

Where the ECMWF has a deepening trough (N Rockies/W Plains) in the next 10 days, the GFS operational and ensembles show a ridge!

Both models are in agreement about the initial trough diving down the Plains which in turns pumps the ridge on the East Coast. The question is, will we get the first 90 in New York City next week?

Here’s the ECMWF operational 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

0-7 day.

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Day 3-10.

Now let’s look at the GFS ensemble. It shows the opposite by week 2 (8-14 day) with ridge, not trough over the N Rockies into the western Plains.

GFS operational is in agreement with the ensemble.

CFSv2 continues to show NO real heat. It tries to build north from Texas but notice how greens, not oranges or reds dominate the map.

Be sure to see today’s video!

Have a great day.

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