Well it’s looking like modelling is in good agreement about the ridge, that’s now centred over the UK and Ireland will hold through the next 10-16 days in the means. It’s all thanks to a trough dropping and deepening over Russia down into the Ukraine where the heat has been strongest of late.

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Exact positioning of the ridge will be important as to how sunny and warm we get here in the west. Have the ridge pretty much overhead and it’s warmer and sunnier (potentially) but the general consensus is for the ridge to be centred to our NW or W which would lead to a cooler but still largely settled NW air flow.

Overall, whether it’s warm or somewhat cooler, the theme appears to be drier, brighter and more settled.

Here’s what the models are showing in the 7-mean 500mb height anomalies.

Here’s the GFS ensemble.

0-7

7-14

9-16

GFS Ens 7-day mean 2-metre temps and anomalies

See today’s video.

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