Conditions come together this weekend for some strong thunderstorms. Thunderstorms which are likely to produce flooding rains, frequent lightning (in places), large hail, gusty winds and perhaps a few funnels or weak tornadoes. Warm, moist air riding beneath a cold mid upper level with a strong front pushing through sets the stage up nicely. volatile

The likely ‘hardest hit areas’ will be over northern France, central and eastern portions of the UK as well as Belgium and the Netherlands.

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This however is NOT an out of the ordinary event like some sources would like to suggest. The article written by the Daily Express is simply HYPE as per usual and probably one of the more ridiculous headlines I’ve seen by them.

Here’s the 500mb environment tomorrow PM.

Here’s the 500mb temps tomorrow PM.

Surface for same time.

Air isn’t just warm but it’s juicy too.

As a result of the large temp difference (lapse rate) between surface and 500mb (20-25C vs -20 to -25C), the environment is primed as the front pushes east over England tomorrow afternoon. Strong upward motion ahead and along the boundary. Look for some twisting and turning in the atmosphere BEHIND the front. Could see spin ups over parts of Ireland and Scotland as well as  England and Wales.

Highest CAPE values tomorrow afternoon will be over the East Midlands into East Anglia and the Southeast. Higher still on the other side of the North Sea. It’s basically where surface readings are highest.

As for heavy rain, while is comes in heavy for a time along the front, it’s the thunderstorms that develop along the boundary that bears watching as these could drop 1-2 inches of rain within a mater of 90 minutes causing flooding or worse still, localised flash flooding. Large hail up to pea, worst case, golf ball size (isolated spots) is possible.

Here’s the surface charts for tomorrow afternoon. Notice the rains increase in intensity the further east over the UK. Storms are possible north of highest CAPE.

Note the TWO bands seen by the model over France. This is the model ‘seeing’ bands of thunderstorms. ‘Clumping’ together is possible which could bringing torrential downpours to areas in north-south bands.

An area of low pressure will pass north of the UK during next week, somewhat supressing the ridge in the west but it looking good temperature wise. Staying warm.

ECMWF 7-mean 500mb height anomalies.

Upcoming 7.

Day 3-10

See video for more. Have a great day.

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