The much advertised warmth is now pushing northward up the western flank of Europe and is sure to present most from Iberia to northern Scandinavia with the warmest temps of 2014 so far. In contrast to the warmth and sunshine Thursday through Saturday, a deepening cut off low diving towards the Balkans will bring a very soggy spell with high risk of flooding.

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Check out the ECMWF 500mb height charts through the next few days and notice the big western ridge and deep cut off to the southeast.

24 hrs

48 hrs

72 hrs

Note the southward progression of a trough just west of Ireland. This will help pump warmer air north over western Europe Friday and Saturday but it’s exact positioning through the weekend into early next week makes for a tricky forecast, especially if low pressure forms off NW Iberia and tries to pull Africa and W Med air northwest into the UK around the low.

As for the immediate 2-3 days coming up, look for low 20s in eastern Scotland, maybe 24-25C in Southeast and East Midlands of England as well as northern France and the interior coastal of Belgium and the Netherlands. Could see 21-24C over Denmark and southern Sweden (away from coast).

Here’s the surface charts through the next 72 hrs.

While it’s great weather in the west late this week into the weekend, it’s terrible in the east. Just look at how much rainfall the QPF has in the next 7 days. Yes, 7-9 inches.

The GFS ensembles show the turnaround from warmer than normal across the UK, France week 1 to cooler than normal week 2. The warmth over Scandinavia and particularly Russia down to the Ukraine simply builds week 2.

7-day mean 2-metre temp and anomaly.

0-7 day

7-14 day

500mb mean height anomaly reflects the 2 metre temp anomaly nicely.

0-7 day

7-14 day

So, we go from ridging back to trough in the west next week while the ridge explodes in the east. Look for potentially record heat in cities such as Kiev, Moscow up to St Petersburg, perhaps even a few spots in Scandinavia.

I agree with the CFSv2 solution of ridge giving way to trough in the west next 7 days but the return of it late next week into the weekend as the progressive pattern continues.

 

Think this is what we’ll see this summer. Spells of warm and sun followed by cool and unsettled. When cool and unsettled arrive, the next spell of decent weather can be seen coming…

Be sure to check today’s video for more.

Have a great evening.

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