The widespread early week shower and thunderstorm threat should give way to drier, sunnier and warmer conditions late this week over Western Europe as an Azores high pressure builds north. While the west heats up with ‘capping’, relaxing the atmosphere, low pressure will develop and push southeast over the continent bringing a potential flood threat to central and southeast Europe late this week.

Check out the BIG rain totals in the east of the continent through the next 7 days!

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Expect temperatures to widely run in the 21-24C (locally 26C) range late week over northern France, southern Britain, the Low Countries up into Denmark and southern Sweden. Parts of eastern Scotland may well get into the low 20s also.

Before we get to the warmth and sunshine later this week, gardeners beware, there’s a frost threat starting in the north of the UK tonight, potentially more widely tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Ground level temps early Wednesday morning.

ECMWF

GFS has more widespread chill, frost potential.

The front running 8 days looks like this.

500mb height anomalies

The following 7 days.

Interestingly the GFS ensemble has the west cooler than normal throughout the next 14 days, hum… check out Northeast Europe day 7-14.

0-7 day

7-14 day

While neither the ridge or trough looks particularly intense this week, however there appears to be significant strengthening once is pushes east in the 7-14 day. There’s support in both modelling and meteograms for significant heat NEXT WEEK over eastern Europe from Kiev up to St Petersburg. Take a close look at the Moscow meteogram as a centre point.

Interestingly, while it heats up this week in the west initially with major warmth making it all the way up towards the Scandinavia arctic circle, the trough crashes in but appears to get replaced by a stronger ridge later next week, take a clos look at the Amsterdam meteogram towards the end of the 9-16 day!

GFS meteogram for Dublin 1-8 days

9-15 day

Amsterdam

1-8 day

9-15

Moscow (HEAT is seen building early next week as the trough returns to the west)

1-8 day

9-15 day

GFS ensembles show the rise and fall of the height fields over Europe week 1 into week 2. The rollercoaster pattern continues as we push towards the first month of meteorological summer 2014.

Be sure to watch this morning’s Europe video. Will have an update tomorrow morning at the usual time of 9.15am! Have a great evening.

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Tags: europe weather, flood, flooding, heat wave, russia heat, uk weather, ukraine weather