The system pushing out of the Dakotas and diving into the Ohio Valley tonight will end up bombing out later tomorrow into Wednesday off Virginia Beach and will likely be DC’s biggest snow producer in a few years. It’s been 2 or 3 years since the immediate Washington DC area saw a decent snowstorm and this upcoming system will likely deliver to all those hungry snow geese that have been all but disappointed in recent years.

While I suspect 3-6 inches for Metro DC, possibly higher amounts in the West Virginia/Virginia mountains, we will see that swath of 3-6, perhaps 4-8, locally 10″ spread north up through metro Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston with 8-12 over parts of east Jersey, Long Island into the Providence and Boston areas as the low deepens into the 990s and eventually 980s (mb) as it feeds off the warm Atlantic waters.

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It’s as that energy feeds back once over that warm water, will we see the juice really fire over the land as Atlantic moisture will get thrown back into the incoming cold air. The very cold air will really enhance those numbers, setting up intense banding features which could drop 1-3 inch per hour snows with embedded thunder and lightning. This may not be the biggest snow of the winter from Philly northward but it will potentially be for points south and for all, a noteworthy, disruptive snowstorm.

As you can see, some the of the greatest above normal SST anomalies globally, is off the US East Coast and this is enough to help intensify low’s which swing off the coast, especially with the very cold, dry air sweeping in from behind.

Below is the GFS surface/precipitation charts which show the low pushing off the VA coast and deepening as it pushes up the coast with the heaviest precipitation on the northwest side of the centre. Winds at the coast could gust to 50, maybe 60 mph from Virginia up to Maine with gusts locally topping 70 mph in exposed areas.

24 hrs

27 hrs

30 hrs

36 hrs

42 hrs

Here’s the GFS projected snow totals through the next 60 hours.

Here’s the AccuWeather snow forecast.

As that low exits, in comes the bitterly cold air straight out of Hudson Bay!

850 mb temps.

48 hrs

The GFS takes the 0F line very close to DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia Wednesday morning, near 5 in NYC and Boston.

The GFS has it colder in NYC and Boston Thursday morning with near 0 following Wednesday highs in the low to mid-10s.

Thu AM.

The rest of the week will be COLD and as for early next week? Well I shall have more tomorrow and in the coming days. Lot’s of winter for the Midwest and East tomorrow through the next 10 days, maybe more. Stay tuned.

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Tags: arctic outbreak, Boston Snowstorm, DC Snowstorm, New York blizzard, Northeast snowstorm, polar vortex