We have several weather stories going on right now including the on going flood devastation flooding around Boulder, Colorado and adjacent communities but firstly I would like to mention newly formed Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Atlantic and Manuel in the Pacific. Both system either side of Mexico pose a grave flood threat over the next 5+ days. Both systems will pump rich moisture inland which will bump up against high terrain and that means heavier rains. Ingrid that’s spinning away in the Bay of Campeche poses a MAJOR flood threat with a paralleling of the east coast over the next 5 days and the constant flow of rich tropical moisture inland and up against the mountains. The already soaked ground will only exasperate the flood situation.
How much rain may fall from both Ingrid and Manual? We could see a fairly large area of Mexico receiving as much as 8-15 inches, locally 20-25 inches.
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While Manuel should weaken as it lifts north, Ingrid is expected to intensify, either becoming a strong storm or perhaps even a weak hurricane prior to landfall north of Tampico during Monday.
Not only will Mexico get in on flooding rains but also the far south of Texas. Modelling suggests a significant 4-8, locally 10 inch rain event for Brownsville and the Rio Grande Valley which of course is very welcome given the long term drought but it’s likely to be a case of a little too much too quick.
As for the Boulder, Colorado flood situation, sadly at least 4 people have died and there are many still missing after 6-12 inches of rain fell across Boulder and surrounding communities over the past 48 hours.
Rich Gulf moisture piling up against the Front Range of the Rockies over a prolonged period of time with cold air aloft, helped bring torrential rains which kept on coming and with the help of recent wildfires. The combination of heavy rain, steep terrain filled with canyons and the lack of vegetation to hold the rain water provided the perfect environment for record flash flooding.
Check out these rainfall totals over the past 48 hours.
As for the longer term US and North America pattern. We need to pay close attention to not one but two western pacific typhoons of which appear to recurve. The fact they should recurve, suggests enhancement of eastern North America troughiness and cool shots.
The ECMWF shows the recurve of at least system one and count 10 days beyond the point at which the storm recurves, likely slamming Japan and possibly the Koreas, there should be a trough over eastern Canada and the US.
Interestingly both NAO and AO is seen to go negative towards the end of the month and this fits well with my longer term thinking of a cold October for much of the central and eastern US.
Here’s the latest CFS 500mb height anomalies from October through December. It continues to look good for eastern winter weather lovers!
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