As your well aware since August, I am going for a colder than normal October for the UK, Ireland and western Europe and while there is a largely zonal pattern at the moment and that’s likely to continue over the next week or so, there are more solid indicators of change on the way.

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Long Range modelling has been back and forth on the autumn while winter has shown persistently, below normal temps. I of course use long range models as a guide and confirmation to my own ideas and theories. For the past few months I’ve seen October as a cold month with the chance of early snowfall in places while it’s a warmer, wetter November to follow.

In the past week or so, the trend in both NAO/AO has been towards negative towards the end of Sept which fits my overall thinking.

Check out the latest GFS NAO/AO ensembles.

The latest CFS confirms my overall thinking for October as well as November!

We have an interesting next few weeks ahead..

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