The temperature climb has begun as highs reach 16C or 60F today over Northeast Scotland while it hit 17C at Murlough, Northern Ireland thanks to strong, downsloping winds. While it stays fairly unsettled across Northern Ireland and much of Scotland over the next few days, Central and Southern England, Wales and Ireland are set to warm further in coming days.

Stronger heights and some sunshine helped temperatures climb to 16 or 17C today across the South but as heights build over the next 40+ hours, temperatures should rise to 21C (70F) tomorrow and by Wednesday, I expect highs of 23-24C (73-74F) as stated way back.

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However, it’s just as temperatures reach potentially the warmest values of the year on Wednesday, cold air is regrouping NW of Scotland and with a low set slide east to the north of Scotland midweek, a trailing front will push out this warmth, replacing it with much colder air by Friday into the weekend. The front looks set to sharpen as warmth build out of ahead of it while cold air gets drafted in from the NW on the backside.

We could see highs go from 23C Wednesday to a mere 9 or 10C Saturday if not Sunday in London. Snow is likely to

Here’s the latest GFS 500mb & 850 temps out at 42 hrs or Wednesday.

500mb

 

As Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, it could get equally as warm in the SE during Thursday despite the southward advance of the front. Winds are likely to increase out of the SW at the surface during Thursday afternoon and so with the help of sunshine, highs should reach 22 or 23C over East Anglia and around London but look out over Northern and central England as wind, heavy rain and potentially thunderstorms sink south.

Check out the GFS 500mb chart by 96 hrs or early Friday.

Here’s the GFS surface and precip chart out at 84 hrs, a little ahead of the 500mb chart above. Notice the strong upper winds due to the sharp thermal gradient and with the below surface chart you can see the heavy rains associated with the boundary. Strong gusty winds are likely but if you live in the SE, your likely going to see strong but warm SW winds while it may be in the 5-6C range with a brisk if not downright cold NW wind over the Midlands or North of England with snow falling over the highest ground.

In Scotland, Northern Ireland and North of England, temperatures Friday will be only in the 5-9C range, any ‘mild’ 10C reading here will be thanks to a strong late April sun because 850mb temperatures shall be falling into the -5 to -10C range at this time.

Here’s the 850mb temps at 96 hrs.

Check out the GFS 850 temps by Saturday, brrr!!

All areas will be back in the cold air again by Saturday with surface temps struggling to make 10C for most.

At night, beneath any clear skies and with lighter winds, expect the return of fairly sharp frosts. Rural areas may once again dive into the -2 to -4C range widely with some sheltered areas dipping towards -6 to -8C.

As for next week, once the -NAO signal re-establishes this weekend with the trough, it looks to linger through much of next week and will set the stage for a chilly start to May as forecasted. I fear this pattern could linger well into May as once this sets in again, it may be tough to shift but I remain optimistic that by mid May, like we saw this month, the NAO should flip back to positive. As it gets further into the year, the atmosphere should start to react more with the time of year and we should hopefully hold onto a warmer pattern during the second half of May, HOPEFULLY!

Here’s the ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps Mon and Wednesday next week.

Monday

Wednesday

Here’s the latest NAO ensemble.

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