After so much talk of this storm, it is now unravelling and while there has been such uncertainty over especially the Baltimore-Washington corridor, it’s now looking more and more likely they are going to get hit hard by this. My advise would be, think seriously before attempting a Wednesday AM commute into either city!

As for Minneapolis, the snows are now falling and will continue throughout tonight and through Tuesday with totals likely to come in at between 9-11 inches. As for Chicago, while they get hit by a heavy, ‘system’ snow, winds are likely to blow for a time off Lake Michigan into the city and so enhanced snowfall is possible and this could bring upwards of 12 inches of snow to the Chicago Metro.

Here’s the latest GFS snow projection for the next 48 hours.

Note 3 bullseyes within the swath extending from ND to IL with the greatest over north-central ND, north of Bismarck, another to the west of the Twin Cities and the 3rd over north-central IL, however I wonder how much the model is picking up on potential lake influence out of this.

When all is said and done, somewhere in North Dakota and even Minnesota may total 18 inches easily while 14 inches falls near Chicago.

As the secondary forms and rapidly deepens off the North Carolina coast, it looks like there is still a fine line between rain and snow while almost runs right along the I-95 corridor from Richmond all the way to Philadelphia. The key is not only how much snow as a pose to rain falls but how heavy the precipitation falls in this area. March is a time of year where it needs to come down probably at a rate of 1-2″ per hour for a period of 3-6 hours in order for high accumulation within an environment where warm fights cold.

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Here’s the GFS snow projections for the Mid-Atlantic. Now there’s no doubt that the higher elevations west of Baltimore-Washington will get the brunt of this storm. I recon there will be a few spots tucked into the mountains of western Maryland (Garrett Co), NW Virginia and eastern West Virginia right along the WV-VA border where 16-22″ of snow will fall, the question remains, how much snow falls on the urban corridor?

I said this during Monday and will say it again.. this will go one of two ways in the cities. You’ll either get a dissapointing 2-4 inch snowstorm or they will get clobbered by a foot of snow. With this sitiuation I don’t see a middle ground but dynamics will have to be there for these cities to get a big snow.

The heavy wet nature of this snow will mean power outages and trees down, especially in the mountains. Along the coast, coastal flooding and beach erosion with wind gusts of 40-50 mph.

Points north of Philly may get 2-4 inches in cities such as Trenton, Newark, NYC and Boston.

Here’s snow totals according to TWC for Midwest.

For Mid-Atlantic according to AccuWeather,com

Impacts!

Update will be available again Tuesday PM.

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Tags: March mid-atlantic snowstorm, March snowstorm, Mid-Atlantic snowstorm