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General Synopsis

In today’s UK & Ireland Regional Forecast I shall be looking at expected weather conditions right through till Saturday. I highlight expected daytime and nighttime tempeartures as well as factors such as wind chills and possible snow shower chances. A mild, stable air mass with embedded low low, mist and drizzle will quickly get replaced by a cold northerly air flow tomorrow night into Friday with all areas turning brighter, colder with a chance of snow for some.

Ridging will be replaced by a trough with a blocking high setting up to the NWE of the UK. The repositioning of this high up towards Greenland opens the door to a northerly air flow which will transport arctic origin air south.

See below for details on how cold your area will be Friday and Saturday. I will have a post available later which will discuss the weather potential for next week.

Scotland

After a dull and mild start for the majority, except Central Highlands where it was clear and cold, these skies are beginning to brighten central and southern parts through this afternoon with plenty of late day sunshine to be had and the bank of cloud and light rain lingering over the North Highlands will spread south tonight. All, this heralds a big change in our weather following mild days shrouded in low cloud and drizzle with dense, stubborn mist and fog for some. Through tonight and it will turn mostly cloudy across the Central Lowlands thanks to that bank of cloud across the North Highlands. This will be slow moving so the South will see clearer cooler conditions and so too will the North. During tomorrow morning the bank of cloud with light rain or drizzle will push through Dumfries and Galloway and the Borders making way for brighter weather from the north. Once this weak front pushes through tomorrow, you’ll notice a northerly breeze picking up. This will result in a much brighter day for most tomorrow but you will notice the air cooler, temperatures will be down by 2-4C off today as chillier air starts to invade. Tonight’s lows range from 0C in rural areas beneath clear skies to 6 or 7C where cloudy with rain possible. Highs tomorrow 7-9C rather than 11-15C today. It’s tomorrow night which becomes noteworthy as a much colder air mass begins to push south over Scotland, this will bring snow showers initially to hills but as the atmosphere cools from top down as the arctic wind starts to blow, don’t be surprised through Friday if snow showers start to effect low levels, particularly along coastal areas of Aberdeenshire, Tayside and Fife. Winds will turn fresh everywhere but strong across the north making it feel bitter. Temperatures Friday only rise to 3 or 4C in the Highlands with the freezing line down to 1,500ft. Elsewhere 5-7C. Winds blowing from the N, NE will make it feel closer to freezing all day and Friday night will be bitter with lows dipping to freezing

or lower. If any breeze is blowing, wind chills will be well below freezing everywhere. In the hills, well below -10C.

While skies should be clear, if there was light enough winds, lows could hit -4 or -5C even in the Central Belt while towns and cities could drop to -2 or -3C. For the Highlands and Southern Uplands, wouldn’t be surprised to see a -8C or lower.

Sleet or snow showers is possible for Glasgow and Edinburgh Friday and Saturday but moisture will be limited due to the source of air mass. East Coast areas may see the best chance of snow showers.

Saturday looks to be the coldest day with highs in the Central Highlands potentially failing to hit 0C and for the main Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor, highs may have a tough time reaching 4C. Any breeze will make it feel like it’s below freezing.

England

It’s another grey, dull day with outbreaks of rain scattered here and there but it’s at least another mild one with temperatures widely in the 12-15C range. It’s 17C currently at Charlwood while there are several spots registering 16C despite the cloud and light rain. This is all thanks to an upper level ridge which is drawing very mild air up from the near continent. This very mild air is also very moist hence the thick, low cloud with drizzle or light rain.

The cloudy and damp theme continues through tonight and staying mild once again with lows barely getting below 10C anywhere. We are likely to see more lows in the South struggling to get below 14C. That’s above the normal ‘high’ for this stage in October.

During the day Thursday, England remains in the mild, cloudy, drizzly air mass with temperatures similar to today. Through the afternoon we may get some breaks in the thick cloud deck across the Midlands and parts of East Anglia which could boast temperatures in a couple of spots but all in all it’s another dreary but unseasonably mild late October day.

Tomorrow night into Friday will herald a significant change as a cold northerly starts to invade and will spread into the North, advancing south throughout the day. Expect the warmest part of the day to be early Friday and by afternoon, the cold air with a brisk N wind will have invaded all but the south coast. Highs will be a good 5C down from today and tomorrow’s values everywhere, locally 7C with barely anywhere reaching 10C.

Carlisle, Newcastle, York to Manchester may struggle to reach 6C and when factoring in a windchill, it may feel more like freezing all day with snow showers dusting the tops of the Pennines.  Snow showers may get down to sea level as they blow straight off the North Sea, impacting such cities as Newcastle and Sunderland, perhaps extending down to Grimsby and Hull with a stinging NE wind.

What a change!

Saturday will be the coldest day before moderation coming after.

Wales

It’s a largely dull, cloudy and damp day for most across the country this afternoon with any brightness confined to areas west of the hills thanks to shelter from the northeast breeze. Despite all the cloud it’s a mild day once again at between 12-15C with a couple of spots perhaps topping 16C.

Through tonight and the dull, damp and drizzly theme continues with patchy mist and fog developing. Temperatures will be mild for the time of year at between 9-14C.

During tomorrow and unfortunately it’s yet another dull, damp day with temperatures again rising towards 15, maybe 16C in places but if your on the hunt for brighter skies, well they are coming but at a chilly price.

Tomorrow night heralds that big change with a a brisk north wind developing, this will clear out those skies but will force a sharp temperature drop from the mild air of the day, to perhaps 2-5C overnight but factor in a stiff northeast wind and it’sd going to feel like we’ve hit a button and shot us into December.

Friday will be cold but brighter with hill snow. Friday night into Saturday may allow wintry showers down to lower levels if there is moisture to be had. Highs only reach 5-9C on Friday and feeling much cooler in the wind.

Saturday looks to be the coldest day with a high of only 6 or 7C for most.

Northern Ireland

After another damp, dreary but mild start across Ulster, skies brighten through this afternoon and where that sun shines longest and the breeze is light, you’ll feel the warmth of that sun which should help boost temperatures towards 15C in a few spots. Through tonight and a clearer night for some should allow for somewhat cooler temperatures. These clearing, cooling skies will allow for more widespread mist and fog formation which could spell a tricky commute Thursday morning.

Lows tonight should dip away to 4-5C rather than the past few nights where it has struggled to get below 10C.

A brighter day tomorrow heralds some change with a freshening northeast breeze and a couple of degrees of today’s tempeartures but it’s tomorrow night into Friday which marks the bigger change to much colder. Expect lowering tempeartures under clear skies tomorrow night which will make for a cold night. Lows dipping to low single figures and when factoring in a brisk northeast wind, it’s going to feel more like freezing or below at the bus stop Friday morning.

Highs Friday will only reach 7 or 8C at best and Friday night into Saturday will be cold, frosty with perhaps patchy ice in places. Watch out for an odd sleet or snow showers, particularly up across the North, down towards Larne.

Ireland

Today will be no different to the past several with a lot of cloud, mist, murk and dizzle across the country. This should break up through the late afternoon providing a few spots with some late day sunshine. Highs range from 11-15C with an odd spot perhaps reaching 16C if sunshines breaks through.

Tonight holds onto the gloomy theme with plenty of cloudcover, this acts like a warm blanket stopping any warmth generated by day, to escape back to space, so another mild night with mist and fog developing here and there. Lows no lower than 7 or 8C.

Tomorrow will be another cloud, damp, dreary day, however there are hints of change through the afternoon with sunnier skies developing across the northeast and these should begin to erode the thick, low cloud deck. The fly in the ointment will colder air pushing down. A freshening northeast wind will make it distinctly chillier tomorrow night into Friday morning.

Friday will be much brighter, especially in the north and central areas with perhaps some cloud hanging on across the far south. Highs will be a good deal cooler with most struggling to hit 10C, factor in a NE wind and it will feel more like 2 or 4C.

Friday night into Saturday and a push of colder air sweeps down from the north and so frost, even some patchy ice may greet you Saturday morning with lows near freezing for many and factoring in a NE breeze and it will have a feel of December in the air. Highs Saturday will struggle to reach 8C for most with some snow possible for the mountains of Donegal.